THE VANHAUS JOURNAL · FORECASTS

The rental outlook: what could support demand into 2027?

Three planning assumptions to test before buying a rental property.

VANHAUS Editorial · 20 October 2026 · Editorial forecast

A forecast for decisions, not a rent promise

This is a qualitative VANHAUS outlook dated 20 October 2026. It is not a rental index, an occupancy forecast or a claim about a particular property’s achievable rent. Each assumption needs to be tested against current evidence from the actual area and building.

Base case: affordability shapes demand

Our base case is that tenants continue to weigh location against total monthly cost. Well-presented homes with practical layouts and predictable expenses may compete effectively, but that does not justify assuming unlimited annual increases. Test asking rents against recently concluded leases wherever reliable evidence is available.

Upside: stronger household formation and mobility

If employment, household income or relocation demand improve, suitable homes near the places people need to reach could benefit. That scenario depends on local circumstances. A well-connected Gauteng apartment may serve a different demand pool from a furnished Cape Town studio; neither should be valued using the other’s tenant story.

Downside: cost pressure reduces room for increases

If household costs rise faster than income, landlords may face more resistance to increases or longer marketing periods. Higher owner expenses do not automatically mean a tenant can pay more. Model vacancy, bad debt and maintenance independently of the rent-growth assumption.

The action for investors

Prepare flat-rent, moderate-growth and vacancy-stress cases. Keep any percentage growth assumption explicitly labelled as your own modelling input. Review the model when a lease renews or material costs change. The strongest rental purchase is one you can continue to hold when the optimistic case does not arrive on schedule.